Working Papers
The Long-Term Impacts of Rent Control (2020 Job-Market Paper)
Abstract: Rent control is a common policy tool enacted to limit the growth of rents and allow tenants to remain in their homes for longer. Prior empirical research has mainly focused on rent control’s impact on neighborhoods and housing markets while ignoring the potential long-term impacts of rent control for the people directly affected by the policy, particularly children. Using a nearest neighbor Mahalanobis distance matching strategy and publicly available outcome data at the census tract level, I report estimated treatment effects of rent control on average long-term outcomes for children. Consistent with the literature, I first provide evidence that rent control leads to increases in the average housing tenure duration. I also show evidence implying that rent control improves economic mobility for those who receive it while also creating negative spillover effects for those that do not but live in cities with rent control policies. In tracts with a high proportion of rental units, rent control is associated with a $1,300 increase in average tract-level income. Lastly, I report suggestive evidence that rent control has small long-term benefits for children at the bottom of the parent income distribution, but further study is required to validate these results.
Modernizing Person-Level Entity Resolution with Biometrically Linked Records with Michael Mueller-Smith.
Abstract: We propose a novel approach to person-level record linkage in administrative data, a procedure and setting that is increasingly at the frontier of economic research. We build a supervised learning algorithm trained on fingerprint identifiers that act as an unbiased measure of true match status. Both the size and nature of the training data yield performance that substantially improves on existing literature, especially for women and minorities. We demonstrate model effectiveness in deduplication and record linkage applications, and extendibility to dissimilar populations from the training data. Simulation exercises illustrate how matching performance impacts internal and external validity, and statistical precision.
The Impact of Financial Sanctions: Regression Discontinuity Evidence from Driver Responsibility Fee Programs in Michigan and Texas with Keith Finlay, Elizabeth Luh and Michael Mueller-Smith.
Abstract: We estimate the causal impact of financial sanctions in the U.S. criminal justice system. We utilize a regression discontinuity design and exploit two distinct natural experiments: the abrupt introduction of driver responsibility fees (DRF) in Michigan and Texas. These discontinuously imposed additional surcharges ($300–$6,000) for criminal traffic offenses. Although the policies generated almost $3 billion of debt, we find consistent evidence that the DRFs had no impact on recidivism, earnings, or romantic partners’ outcomes over the next decade. Without evidence of a general or specific deterrence effect and modest success with debt collection, we find little justification for these policies.
The Demography of Rising Wealth Inequality with Fabian Pfeffer and Bob Schoeni. Revise and Resubmit at Demography.
Abstract: The growth of inequality in household wealth over recent decades is well documented. We determine the independent contribution of several demographic trends to rising U.S. wealth inequality over the last three decades. Using data from the Survey of Consumer Finances from 1989 through 2016 and novel decomposition techniques, we show that rapid growth in wealth inequality and increasing wealth concentration at the top coincided with important changes in the demographic composition of the country but that the two are not directly related. However, the shifts in the wealth distribution among demographic groups, in particular the move of households with less education and non-elderly households away from the middle of the distribution, explain much of the observed overall growth in inequality. Part, but not all, of these demographic contributions to rising wealthinequality operate through their contributions to rising income inequality.
Peer-Reviewed Research
The Determinants of Subprime Mortgage Performance Following a Loan Modification with Max Schmeiser (2016). The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics. 52(1), 1-27.
Abstract: We examine the evolution of mortgage modification terms obtained by distressed subprime borrowers during the recent housing crisis and the effect of the various types of modifications on the subsequent loan performance. Using the CoreLogic Loan Performance dataset that contains detailed loan level information on mortgages, modification terms, second liens, and home values, we estimate a discrete time proportional hazard model with competing risks to examine the determinants of post-modification mortgage outcomes. We find that principal reductions are particularly effective at improving loan outcomes, as high loan-to-value ratios are the single greatest contributor to re-default and foreclosure. However, any modification that reduces total payment and interest (P&I) reduces the likelihood of subsequent re-default and foreclosure. Modifications that increase the loan principal—primarily through capitalized interest and fees are more likely to fail, even while controlling for changes in P&I.